AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

It was an extraordinary market reversal this week with all prices advancing significantly. It’s difficult to understand the mechanisms that result in such activity. Exporters and processors have been unable trade greasy wool or wool tops for a few weeks. This has resulted in a free fall in market prices. Confusion has been exacerbated by the general global market uncertainty, international trade negotiations, or lack thereof, and prices coming from what was perceived as an historically high level. But we have remained confident in the fact the consumers had not abandoned wool to the extent that you would believe by following the market spiral downwards. What was needed was some confidence at a new level and for growers to reserve their right to withdraw wool from sale or to pass it in when offered a price below their reserve. This is what they did. Eventually the two lines crossed and exporters were unsure of short-term supply amidst more general enquiry across the global wool supply chain. Traders opted not to offer forward and from there it had to react. Even if a customer wanted wool, no one was prepared to sell it. Supply was too limited. Now there are few exporters and traders with any greasy wool stock who are prepared to offer forward. This has resulted in Chinese Topmakers chasing wool at Thursday’s auction ‘at best’ and without giving instruction on price. The perfect storm!

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 06/09/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1535

Change in % +12.45

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2442

Change in %: -0.12

16 Micron

Close: 2228

Change in %: +0.54

17 Micron

Close: 2085

Change in %: +1.46

18 Micron

Close: 2025

Change in %: +3.69

19 Micron

Close: 1942

Change in %: +12.45

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2117

Change in %: +2.62

Forecast

The Schneider Authentico contracts would have been a good option for growers who have offered wool in the first few months of this season. They are designed to reduce the volatility in price by utilising six- or twelve-month averages as the base and adding premiums for processing and style quality. The perfect method to insure against selling or buying at the extremes seen in recent weeks. They are restricted to clips certified under the Authentico quality scheme who no longer mules and target fine and superfine wool clips only. We think that the critical level of supply will ensure continued market volatility in the short term. It’s hard to know when to buy or sell so all options should be considered. We’ve chosen to follow the market each week, albeit cautiously. There is no better way during these volatile and uncertain times.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 11

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 11                       5191                           4777                  8.0%

South                   M 11                      9672                           9331                  3.5%

West                     F 11                       4330                          4084                  5.7%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 12                        W-T                            8885

South                      M 12                       W-T                           15802

West                        F 12                        W-T                            6420

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.