Australian Weekly Market Report
Published November 16, 2018 by Tim Marwedel
Comment
It was very encouraging to see the market fortunes turn this week after recent heavy weekly falls. While the merino sector had an up and down week, it was more related to the different market levels between Sydney and Melbourne. Melbourne, with the larger volume, finally spiked quite strongly on Thursday to rebound closer to the Sydney levels. It was the strength of the Thursday sale in Melbourne that will be closely considered. Carding and crossbred types were also keenly sought after and rebounded quite aggressively.
AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 9/11/2018
Eastern Indicator
Close: 1781
Change in %: +0.28%
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Schneider Indicators compared with 9/11/2018
15 Micron (*)
Close: 2670
Change in %: -7.72
16 Micron
Close: 2522
Change in %: -4.68
17 Micron
Close: 2289
Change in %: -4.67
18 Micron
Close: 2143
Change in %: -3.87
19 Micron
Close: 2022
Change in %: -2.67
Each indicator is expressed by a number representing a market quotation for a selected range of types and is not a price expression and it’s not influenced by currency fluctuations.
Wool indicators are anyway based on Australian Dollar.
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Forecast
We’ve often observed the crossbred and carding markets are the first to react when the market is moving. The merino fleece and skirtings then follow. The most significant movers in the stronger market tone were the carding and crossbred sections, with the cardings in particular jumping by between 5 and 10%. With the recent high weekly passed in rates, there is no doubt less wool has been purchased over the past month by the large topmakers, reluctant as the market level fell on a weekly basis. Stock of greasy wool would likely be low. We are of the opinion that some will need wool soon considering the pending three-week Christmas recess and the lower volumes purchased in recent weeks. This could result in a short-term squeeze over the next few weeks. Historically January has been a strong month as well. We’ll need to understand what the real demand is like, many are talking of reduced consumption but the real story of limited supply will only become more obvious into 2019 and this will only encourage more price volatility.
Auction offering – current week
Selling Centres for week 20
Market Sale Offered Sold Passed In
North S 20 9417 8756 7.0%
South M 20 18956 17095 9.8%
West F 20 6953 5636 18.9%
Auction offering – next week
Market Sale Sale days Volume
North S 21 W-T 8320
South M 21 W-T 17761
West F 21 W-T 9253
If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.